Possibility of India-China War

Increasing Tension between India & China at LAC

We all are watching news on increasing tension at Line of Actual Control (LAC) between India & China. Would it lead to The Third World War?  Let's understand it's possibility. 

China is continuously increasing military at Galwan valley in Ladakh day by day. China has deployed more than 6000 soldiers at Galwan valley with logistics & made various tents their, yet.

The three major regions where People's Liberation Army (PLA) has deployed their soldiers are-

1. Galwan Valley

2. Pangong Tso

3. Joshimath-Harsil area

In the east of Ladakh, there are all three strategic areas, shown in Ladakh Map. There is no proper map of Galwan Valley, Pangong Tso & Joshimath-Harsil area because both country put their strong opinion that these lands belong to them. But for understanding, it's located in east of Ladakh.

China is giving aggressive statement against India & saying his Army to prepare for War. Yesterday, Chinese president Xi Jinping told in a press release to his PLA  that "They should be ready to face any untoward situation & preparation should be at war level." It's not a peace loving statement.

According to a report of NDTV published on 26th May, China has deployed their devastating fighter aircraft at airbase near Ladakh. Some reports are describing, this standoff between India & China is worst border tension since Kargil in 1999.

PM Modi took a very strategic meeting with NSA, CDS, 3 Service Chiefs over India-China Standoff in Ladakh & given clear sign to CDS to increase military at Ladakh with logistics. According to some retired army personnel, India's stance is clear & will not step back areas where Chinese soldiers intruded. If China will do anything against India, India's all three forces Army, Air force, Navy is ready to retaliate. As China is giving aggressive statement not only against India but also against USA, Australia, Japan, so these countries is also showing vigilance in  Ladakh region.  

Almost every country are blaming China for spread of coronavirus & giving statement against China, so courtesy is to be humble this time, & everyone is expecting this from China, but China is doing completely opposite of it. China is intimidating Australia on trade & Vietnam. China has shown strong aggression to every country who are saying, China is responsible for Coronavirus. More than 3.5 lac people have died because of covid19, this is just because of mishandling of coronavirus at Wuhan from China & it became a pandemic. Still China is not apologizing for this but became more assertive.

Recently, China has passed a bill named National Anthem Bill in Hong Kong to grab all powers of Hong Kong. In this bill, it is mandatory to all people living in Hong Kong have to sing Chinese National Anthem on special occasions. If this will not follow or any person who insult the National Anthem then it will come under treason & will be punished up to 3 years jail or HK $50000.

Hong Kong is a autonomous region & China can not forcefully implement a bill in this region without assent of local government. Due to this bill, Hong Kong's people will again come on road to protest against this bill, for this, China has already deployed flood of police in Hong Kong. Last time, when Hong Kong's people came on the road to protest against anti-extradition bill, number was in million. China basically wants to end the autonomy of Hong Kong & to annex it, passing various bills.

Xi Jinping said in a press meeting "Great reforms come after great disaster & China has steeled itself after various suffering & hard work." If we understand all these events from Xi Jinping's perspective, all things are right. When Xi Jinping announced himself President for life in 2018, his image rapidly down due to various event & the major one is due to Coronavirus, when all the world is blaming China for spreading of this virus & Chinese people facing racism in all over the world, the image of president has downed in front of it's own people. Even the chinese people believe that Chinese govt. is responsible for this pandemic, so, to improve the image of president, Xi Jinping is trying to get complete power over Hong Kong to make their people happy. And also trying to bully neighbour countries. So, these events are just gimmick to improve Xi Jinping image among their people, internally. 

There are some reasons behind China aggression on India, as India is rapidly making roads at Border by Border Road Organization (BRO). 4-5 years earlier, there were not enough roads at LOC & LAC or those were, in very bad condition, but now BRO speedingly making roads at border & raised 75% road operational. By this China get frustrated on India. 

One more reason behind deploying military at LAC by  China to intimidate India is that, China is going to annex Hong Kong & he doesn't want any kind of voice raise from India against China move. As India had cleared support to QUAD Group (USA, Japan, Australia, India) on Coronavirus convict. China has fear of India to support Hong Kong in future. 

The third reason is India-Australia logistics pact. India is going to sign a pact with Australia on logistics, by this, access of Indian Navy at Australia will increase & also access of Australian Navy in Indian ocean will increase. So, China has fear of choking Strait of Mallaca, which is a lifeline of trade for China. China has very clear rivalry with Australia when Australia blamed China on spread of coronavirus on various platform like UN, WHO, G20.

There could be standoff for 2-4 weeks, but there is no chance of WAR, because China will never get involve in war with Nuclear powered country. And an army official told that "We will see, till when Chinese army want to be at border, we will also be there." Gradually some major countries will raise their voices like USA, Canada, Australia, Japan on support of Hong Kong. And USA is also going to put various sanctions on China. 

So, currently there is no chance of War.